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03/12/2010 - Gelsenkirchen, Germany (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Kevin Kuranyi scored his 14th goal of the season to lead Schalke to a 2-1 win over Stuttgart on Friday and into first place in Germany's Bundesliga.
Schalke moved one point ahead of Bayern Munich, which can reclaim the top spot Saturday when Freiburg visits the Allianz Arena.
Edu and Kuranyi scored in the first 10 minutes of the second half at Veltins- Arena, a span that also included Serdar Tasci's goal for Stuttgart.
Edu replaced Jefferson Farfan to start the second half and scored less than a minute after entering when he slotted past Jens Lehmann to the bottom left.
Tasci headed home a pass from Zdravko Kuzmanovic in the 50th to pull Stuttgart level, but Kuranyi answered with the game-winner in the 55th. Heiko Westermann delivered the pass to Kuranyi deep inside the area and he finished from close range to move into a tie for the Bundesliga scoring lead.
Bayern had its 18-game unbeaten streak in all competitions snapped Tuesday at Fiorentina in a 3-2 loss but still advanced to the last eight in the Champions League on away goals after the aggregate finished 4-4.
Bayern just moved atop the Bundesliga two weeks ago but a 1-1 tie against Koln allowed Schalke to move into the lead after the opening game of the weekend.
The Munich club has matches against Schalke and Bayer Leverkusen over the next two weeks, and can't afford to drop points this week against Freiburg.
"We'd like to pull clear," Thomas Muller told Bayern's website. "What we have to do is win our matches and maybe open up a small gap."
Bayern was forced to use a new defense against Fiorentina, and it did show at times, but 17-year-old David Alaba played extremely well at left back. Diego Contento could return to the lineup Saturday after missing the midweek game in Italy with a knee problem, and one of those two teenagers will start.
Coach Louis Van Gaal will have selection problems this weekend with defenders Martin Demichelis and Christian Lell, striker Mario Gomez, midfielders Franck Ribery, Bastian Schweinsteiger and Hamit Altintop all out.
Captain Mark van Bommel is also doubtful, which would leave central midfield in the hands of Anatoliy Tymoshchuk and Danijel Pranjic.
"It's good we have so many great players in the squad, which means it won't be a problem," Muller said.
Also Saturday, Bochum hosts Borussia Dortmund, Mainz hosts Koln, Hertha Berlin hosts Nurnberg, Monchengladbach hosts Wolfsburg and Hannover hosts Eintracht.
On Sunday, Hoffenheim hosts Werder Bremen and Bayer Leverkusen hosts Hamburg.
<< Blake advances at BNP Paribas Open
Indian Wells, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Former top-five American James Blake was
an easy first-round winner Friday at the $4.5 million BNP Paribas Open, an ATP
World Tour Masters event.
Blake cruised past Spaniard Daniel Gimeno-Traver 6-3, 6-2
<< Redskins bring in RB Johnson
Ashburn, VA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Washington Redskins signed running back
Larry Johnson on Friday.
Terms of the deal were not announced, but a report in the Washington Post says
the contract is for three years and a total of $12 million
<< Bucs ink LB Alston
Tampa, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Tampa Bay Buccaneers announced the
signing of linebacker Jon Alston on Friday.
Terms of the deal were not disclosed.
Alston spent the last three seasons with Oakland. He recorded 23 tackles in
<< Corliss Williamson takes over at Central Arkansas
Conway, AR (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The University of Central Arkansas has named
former college and NBA standout Corliss Williamson as its next men's head
basketball coach.
Williamson, who enjoyed a fruitful 12-year NBA career, played his
Oregon QB Masoli suspended for entire 2010 season >>
Eugene, OR (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Oregon Ducks quarterback Jeremiah Masoli was
suspended for the entire 2010 season after pleading guilty to charges of
second-degree burglary on Friday.
Ducks head coach Chip Kelly made the announce
LeBron returns against Sixers >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - LeBron James was in the Cavaliers'
starting lineup on Friday against the Philadelphia 76ers, returning from a
two-game absence.
James missed a loss to the Bucks last Saturday and a win over the Spurs o
Stanford women drop Arizona, gain Pac-10 semis >>
Los Angeles, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Nnemkadi Ogwumike tallied a game-high 25
points with 10 rebounds as No. 2 Stanford downed Arizona, 72-52, in the
quarterfinals of the Pac-10 Tournament.
Jeanette Pohlen scored 15 points and Kay
Packers sign Pro Bowl S Collins through 2013 >>
Green Bay, WI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Green Bay Packers announced Friday that
the team has signed safety Nick Collins to a multi-year extension through the
2013 season.
Collins had been a restricted free agent, and the team previously
Super Bowl XLIII is now set, the Arizona Cardinals and the Pittsburgh Steelers will meet each other on February 1st in Tampa's Raymond James Stadium to battle it out for the coveted Lombardi Trophy. The game kicks off at 6:00pm ET on NBC with announcers Al Michaels and John Madden covering the on-field action. Super Bowl XLIII betting odds at online bookmaker MySportsbook.com have the Steelers listed as an early -6.5 against the spread favorite.Super Bowl XLIII Betting Odds
Pittsburgh earned their passage to the big game by beating their division rival, the Baltimore Ravens, 23-14 in yesterday's AFC Championship Game. The Steelers jumped on Baltimore early, building a 13-0 first half lead, and never let up on their way to a fairly easy win. Although the Ravens did close to within two points in the fourth quarter, it never appeared as if they had enough offense to pull off the upset.
The Steelers dominating defense held Baltimore to a total of 198 yards while allowing them to convert just three third downs in 13 attempts. Pittsburgh also forced quarterback Joe Flacco into three interceptions, one of which safety Troy Polamalu returned fourty yards for a touchdown.
The Cardinals, by far the playoff team with the longest odds to reach Super Bowl XLIII, did so yesterday with a 32-25 upset of the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC Championship. Arizona charged out of the gates and built a 24-6 halftime lead that had the Eagles venerable defense reeling. Quarterback Kurt Warner and wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald did most of the damage, connecting on three first half touchdowns.
Arizona, however, could not sustain their momentum and the Eagles took a 25-24 with 10:45 left to play in the fourth. The Cardinals, with the franchise's first Super Bowl appearance hanging in the balance, mounted a fourteen play, 72 yard touchdown drive that consumed 7:52 off the clock. Warner hit running back Tim Hightower on a short screen for the go-ahead, game clinching score that will forever live in Cardinal infamy.
MySportsbook.com's Super Bowl XLIII Betting Odds:
Pittsburgh Steelers -6.5 (-110), Over 46.5 (-110), -260 (Money line)
Arizona Cardinals +6.5 (-110), Under 46.5 (-110), +220 (Money line)
Matt Foust won both of his conference championship plays yesterday and he is ready to serve up plenty of Super Bowl action. Each individual play costs $15.00, however, MySportsbook.com recommends purchasing Matt's NFL Playoff Package which includes all of Matt's Super Bowl props and picks from just $45.00.
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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