This Week in Golf - June 14th through June 17th

Golf Betting Lines

06/11/2007 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - UNITED STATES GOLF ASSOCIATION - U.S. OPEN CHAMPIONSHIP, Oakmont Country Club, Oakmont, Pennsylvania - The best in the world head to one of the top courses in the United States this weekend for the second major championship of the season, the U.S. Open.

Oakmont Country Club, the fifth-ranked course in the U.S. by Golf Digest, will host the open for a record eighth time. Prior to this, Oakmont was tied with Baltusrol for most times hosting an Open with seven.

The last time the Open was played at Oakmont was in 1994. Ernie Els claimed the first of his two U.S. Open titles by fending off Loren Roberts and Colin Montgomerie, who posted the first of his three runner-up finishes in the Open, in a three-way playoff.

The extra session was the first three-man playoff since 1963. In the playoff, Els was four-over through two holes, but steadied himself to post one-under the rest of the way to shoot 74.

Roberts also posted a 74, while Montgomerie struggled to a 78. Els and Roberts continued on to the 20th hole, after they matched fours on the 19th hole.

Els found the putting surface with his approach at the par-four 11th, while Roberts dumped his second into a greenside bunker. Roberts blasted to 30 feet and two-putted for bogey. Els walked away with the title as he two-putted for par and the first of his three major titles.

With that win, Els, who was 24 at the time, became the youngest U.S. Open winner since Jerry Pate in 1975.

How long ago was that Open? World No. 1 Tiger Woods was only one of the top amateurs in the country. He was coming off three straight U.S. Junior Amateur wins and would go on to earn his first U.S. Amateur title later that summer.

Last year, Geoff Ogilvy was handed the title as three players coughed up a chance at the title. Montgomerie stumbled to a double-bogey on the 72nd hole. Jim Furyk missed a short par putt on the final hole that would have gotten him into a playoff.

However, the biggest gaffe belonged to Phil Mickelson, who had won the previous two majors -- the 2005 PGA Championship and the 2006 Masters. Mickelson hit his tee shot at 18 off a hospitality tent lining the left side of the fairway, then after a drop, hit a tree with his second. All that led to a double-bogey and gave Ogilvy his first major championship win.

For his part, Ogilvy played solid golf down the stretch. He chipped in for par on 17, then, at the last, he found a sand divot in the fairway, but again saved par to shoot two-over 72 and post five-over 285. That was the highest winning score since Hale Irwin's seven-over at Winged Foot in 1974.

Oakmont will feature long rough and extremely fast greens as all U.S. Open do. However, since Els won the '94 Open here some 3,000 trees have been removed and the course now plays almost like an inland links course.

The course is also much different than it was in 1973 when Johnny Miller shot a U.S. Open record round of eight-under 63. He roared from way back to beat John Schlee by a stroke.

There will be extensive television coverage this week. ESPN and NBC will have coverage from 10:00 a.m. (et) until 7:00 p.m. on Thursday and Friday. NBC will be on air from 3:00-5:00 p.m., while the remaining seven hours of action will be on ESPN. NBC will be on air from 1:00-7:00 p.m. Saturday and Sunday.

The PGA Tour returns next week with the Travelers Championship in Cromwell, Connecticut. Hometown favorite J.J. Henry won there last year.

EUROPEAN TOUR

OPEN DE SAINT-OMER, Aa Saint Omer Golf Club, Lumbres, France - The European Tour is also in action this week with the eighth playing of the Open de Saint- Omer.

Originally part of the Challenge Tour, this event became a dual-ranking event in 2003. Each year since, it has been played opposite the U.S. Open.

Last year, Cesar Monasterio closed with a four-under 67 to overcome a five- shot deficit and claim a one-stroke win over Martin Maritz and third-round leader Henrik Nystrom. Maritz managed just an even-par 71 in the final round, while Nystrom stumbled to a two-over 73 to share second at minus-nine.

Monasterio is not in the field this week, but Maritz and Nystrom are expected to tee it up at Aa Saint Omer Golf Club. Jean-Francois Remesy, a three-time winner on the European Tour and playoff loser last week, is the highest-ranked player in the field.

There is no television coverage for this event.

Next week, the tour heads to Germany for the BMW International Open. This event was played during Labor Day weekend last year and Henrik Stenson bested Retief Goosen and Padraig Harrington in a playoff for his second win of the '06 season.

NATIONWIDE TOUR

ROCHESTER AREA CHARITIES SHOWDOWN AT SOMERBY, Somerby Golf Club, Byron, Minnesota - The Showdown at Somerby was moved up four weeks on the Nationwide Tour schedule this year.

It will be the fourth playing of the event. Last year, Brandt Snedeker needed two extra holes to defeat Jeff Quinney.

Both players have been playing well this year on the PGA Tour as Snedeker is 43rd on the money list, while Quinney is 27th. Each has practically secured their PGA Tour card for next year with over a $1 million earned to this point in the season.

None of the first three winners of this tournament -- Kevin Stadler, Jason Gore and Snedeker -- are in the field this week.

Tom Lehman, captain of the 2006 U.S. Ryder Cup team, co-designed Somerby Golf Club and the course was ranked by Golf Digest as one of the top-10 new private courses in 2005.

The Golf Channel broadcasts action of all four rounds this week. The Nationwide Tour heads to Tennessee next week for the Knoxville Open, where Hunter Haas was victorious last year.

CANADIAN TOUR

TIMES COLONIST OPEN, Gorge Vale Golf Club, Victoria, British Columbia - After a one-month hiatus, the Canadian Tour returns to action this week with the Times Colonist Open.

Last year, Mike Grob closed with three-under 67 to beat Trevor Dodds and John Lieber by one stroke.

Grob, who is the all-time leading money winner on the Canadian Tour, picked up his fourth Canadian Tour win. However, it was his first title since 2002.

There is no television coverage for this event. The tour remains in British Columbia next week for the Greater Vancouver Charity Classic, where Lee Williamson won last year.

DURAMED FUTURES TOUR

MICHELOB ULTRA DURAMED FUTURES PLAYERS CHAMPIONSHIP, Hickory Point Golf Course, Decatur, Illinois - The Futures Tour hits the halfway point this week with the 10th of 20 events this season.

The Michelob ULTRA Players Championship features the highest purse of the season -- $105,000. Last year, Salimah Mussani claimed the title as she rolled to a five-shot win over Charlotte Mayorkas.

The Futures Tour shifts to Ohio next week for the inaugural Duramed Championship.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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