Tiago holds on to win Goodwood Stakes

Horseracing Betting Lines

09/30/2007 - Arcadia, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Santa Anita Derby winner Tiago made a successful return to Santa Anita Park to capture Saturday's $500,000 Goodwood Stakes. The win gives the colt automatic entry into the $5 million Breeders' Cup Classic as part of the "Win and You're In" program.

The 1 1/8 mile Goodwood lost some of its luster with the absence of defending champ Lava Man. He was scratched in order to run in next Sunday's $250,000 Oak Tree Mile on the grass. "The major factor was that it would give him an extra week," said trainer Doug O'Neill.

The Goodwood, conducted for the first time on the all-weather surface, went off with a field of eight after the scratch of both Lava Man and Porfido. Leading the field around the first turn and into the backstretch was Wanna Runner.

Wanna Runner led the field by two lengths up the backstretch with A.P. Xcellent second. 2-1 co-favorites Lewis Michael and Tiago were running in third and fourth, respectively.

Heading into the far turn Lewis Michael took a short lead with A.P. Xcellent and Awesome Gem to the inside. Tiago was gaining along the rail as the field entered the stretch.

At the top of the stretch Tiago had a short lead over Awesome Gem as the two left the field behind. The two leaders battled down the stretch until Tiago stuck his nose out at the wire.

Awesome Gem was second followed by Big Booster, Lewis Michael, A.P. Xcellent, Hello Sunday, Arson Squad and Wanna Runner. The final time was 1:46.93, just one-fifth of a second off the stakes record.

Owned by Mr. and Mrs. Jerry Moss, Tiago was facing older horses for the first time in the Goodwood. The three-year-old, trained by John Shirreffs, was ridden Mike Smith who was aboard for the Santa Anita Derby victory.

Tiago earned $300,000 with the win to bring his career bankroll to more than $1.1 million. The colt has won four times in eight career starts. He was seventh in the Kentucky Derby and third in the Belmont Stakes. Most recently Tiago won the Swaps Stakes at Hollywood Park.

Tiago returned $6.60, $3.40 and $2.80. Awesome Gem paid $3.40 and $2.60, and Big Booster paid $6.00 to show.

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Betting the NFL preseason

Rule No. 1 in the gamblers' handbook states, "Avoid sports betting on meaningless games."

When you're drowning in a sea of baseball monotony, however, things change. Even a hint of pro football betting can persuade the most disciplined bettor to break a few rules. 

The NFL preseason is around the corner, with a tempting Hall of Fame match kicking off on Sunday. But bettors must stay vigilant. Wagering on NFL exhibition games is an entirely different beast than the regular season. Most fans don't recognize the players on the field because starters get as much action in August as Warcraft fans get on Prom night.

The only certainty about the NFL this time of year is uncertainty – and yet there are some who say betting in August can be a gold mine.

“I actually feel the NFL preseason presents solid profit opportunities for sharp bettors and handicappers,” Sports Expert Steve Merril explains. “My experience has been that the sportsbooks fear the preseason, which is evident by lower limits and massive moves.”

The line moves are attributed to the limited knowledge available regarding playing-time distribution. One team’s top unit out on the field for one more series has an impact on the pointspread. Setting lines in the preseason often is a shot in the dark.

“We base the betting lines mostly on public perception,” Pete Korner, founder of the Sports Club in Las Vegas, says. “It’s very tough to predict, almost a guessing game.”

The preseason is all about figuring out who’s in and for how long.

“It becomes a race between bettors and oddsmakers to find out how long the quarterbacks are going to stay in,” Korner admits. “If a sharp gets the information first, he could exploit an early line. I’m a full believer in moving the line in the preseason if the books find out something late in the week.”

Determining what each team’s motive is can help bettors handicap. To do this you must pay close attention to the philosophies head coaches employ in exhibition play.

“You need to know what a coach is trying to accomplish,” says Covers Expert Bryan Leonard. “Sometimes a new coach will want to instill a winning attitude. Others just want to make sure their starters don’t get hurt."

So how do you distinguish who’s playing scared and who’s playing for keeps?

“Head coaches on the hot seat or new coaches trying to implement a winning attitude usually try harder to win in the preseason,” Merril says.

Cleveland Browns head coach Romeo Crennel fits this criteria. He’s entering his third season as the sideline boss and has yet to lead the Browns to more than six wins.

Cleveland is an enticing bet as well because of the unresolved quarterback situation. General manager Phil Savage sacrificed the Browns’ first-round pick in next year’s draft for Brady Quinn, but the former Notre Dame quarterback hasn’t signed or reported to training camp yet.

Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson split time at QB last season and it looks like either player (or even Quinn) could be the opening-day starter.

“If a team has quarterback depth and the pecking order hasn’t been decided, it’s a big advantage,” Leonard says.

Even in the third week of the preseason when starters generally play the most, the final outcome of the game is in the hands of fringe players. A team's talent, all the way down to the last man on the roster, is something to consider.

The New England Patriots have long been considered one of the deeper teams in the NFL and coach Bill Belichick has said in the past he’s unafraid of stars getting hurt in games with nothing on the line. He shocked his colleagues in 2003 by playing some of his starters on special teams in the preseason.

“We want to have the team ready to play a tough, physical game and preparation has to go into that and I imagine a certain amount of injuries go with it,” Belichick told the Providence Journal in August 2003.

Bettors can only hope to find more teams that share the Pats' business-like approach to the preseason (New England is 17-9-3 against the spread since 2000) and take advantage of teams who detest the exhibition schedule.

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