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12/22/2006 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Tennessee Titans didn't need rookie quarterback Vince Young to lead them to their fifth straight win last week, because the defense did all the work. The Titans are likely to require more of Young's services on Sunday, when they put the streak and their slim playoff hopes on the line against the similarly hopeful Buffalo Bills at Ralph Wilson Stadium.
Tennessee tied a franchise record with three defensive touchdowns in a 24-17 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars last Sunday at LP Field. Chris Hope and Pacman Jones both returned interceptions for touchdowns, while a third defensive back, rookie Cortland Finnegan, recovered a fumble and raced 92 yards for a score of his own. The effort lifted Tennessee to its seventh win in nine games after an 0-5 start, and kept its playoff intentions alive. It trails five teams for the final two Wild Card spots in the AFC with two games left.
The Titans were lucky the defense came out with intensity, after Young and the offense registered a measly 98 yards. Young completed 8-of-15 passes for 85 yards, and Travis Henry had 37 yards on 12 carries, not the type of offensive output Titans head coach Jeff Fisher anticipated after preparing all week for Jacksonville's defense. Fisher, though, watched his players record a franchise record with 370 yards in returns.
Buffalo is on a streak of its own, having won two straight and four of its last five games. The Bills' faint playoff hopes are also hanging by a thread, after the team posted a 21-0 victory over the Miami Dolphins this past Sunday. Quarterback J.P. Losman turned in one of the best outings of his career with three TD passes and no interceptions, while Willis McGahee had 79 yards on 28 carries.
First-year head coach Dick Jauron has turned this team around ahead of schedule, but it may be a case of too little, too late in regard to 2006. Just like Tennessee, Buffalo has a pair of games left on the schedule, with the final two Wild Card spots dangling from above.
SERIES HISTORY
Tennessee has a 23-14 edge in its all-time regular season series against Buffalo, and was a 28-26 home winner when the teams last met, in 2003. The Bills won the previous meeting, in 2000 at Ralph Wilson Stadium, by a 16-13 count. The last win for the Titans in Buffalo came in 1995, when the then- Houston Oilers scored a 28-17 win.
The franchises have played three times in the postseason, with two of those contests ranking as the most memorable in NFL history. Buffalo was a 41-38 overtime winner over the Oilers in a 1992 AFC First-Round Playoff, as quarterback Frank Reich brought the Bills back from a 35-3 second-half deficit in the greatest comeback in league annals. In a 1999 First-Round game, a 75- yard kickoff return for a touchdown which included a controversial cross-field lateral from Frank Wycheck to Kevin Dyson gave Tennessee a 22-16 win. The play was dubbed the "Music City Miracle." Buffalo also won a 1988 AFC Divisional Playoff over the then-Oilers, 17-10.
Fisher is 4-1 against the Bills all-time, including playoffs. Buffalo's Jauron will be meeting both Fisher and the Titans for the first time as a head coach.
TITANS OFFENSE VS. BILLS DEFENSE
As mentioned, the Titans didn't have much of an offense in last Sunday's win over Jacksonville, and Young was unlike himself with just 85 passing yards and four yards rushing. Young (1,788 yards, 10 TDs, 11 INTs) usually has to make plays with his legs, but didn't have to since the defense did all the dirty work. The "numbers" the NFL Rookie of the Year candidate put up against Jacksonville is no reflection of what Young has added to this team. Young, who is 7-4 as a starter, will lead his corps of receivers into a cold Ralph Wilson Stadium. Drew Bennett (662 yards, 3 TDs) is the top Tennessee wideout, and the favorite target of Young. Bennett, though, did not record a reception against Jacksonville because Young, who was sacked three times on Sunday, often didn't have enough time to locate him. Bennett is questionable with an ankle problem for Sunday, but is expected to play. Receiver Bobby Wade (406 yards, TD) led the Titans last Sunday with three catches for 48 yards. Tight end Bo Scaife (370 yards, 2 TDs) and wideout Brandon Jones (230 yards, 3 TDs) are also threats within Tennessee's passing attack if Young gets the proper amount of protection.
Bills defensive end Aaron Schobel (48 tackles, 13 1/2 sacks) is headed to Hawaii for the first Pro Bowl appearance in his six-year career. Schobel has a sack in 11 of 14 games this season, and has at least a half-sack in five straight games, the longest such streak by a Bills player since Bruce Smith did it in six straight in 1997. Schobel's 60 career sacks rank third on the club's all-time list, while his 13 1/2 sacks led the NFL as Week 16 began. Schobel and fellow defensive ends Chris Kelsay (52 tackles, 5 sacks) and Ryan Denney (44 tackles, 6 sacks) will have their hands full with the elusive Vince Young under center for Tennessee. Young will have a problem running past a Buffalo secondary led by cornerbacks Terrence McGee (69 tackles) and Nate Clements (63 tackles, 3 INTs). Clements had a pick last week, and is tied for the team lead with three. He has an INT in two straight contests. Rookie safeties Donte Whitner (80 tackles, INT) and Ko Simpson (67 tackles, 2 INTs) provide the deep help Buffalo will need to cover the Titans' receivers, including deep-ball threat Bennett.
Henry will take on his former employer for the first time this weekend, and will try to bust through Buffalo's 27th-ranked rushing defense. Henry, who as mentioned had just 12 carries for 37 yards in the win over Jacksonville, spent the first four years of his career as a Bill before being traded to the Music City after the 2004 campaign. Henry (974 yards, 7 TDs) has a tough task against the Bills, who haven't allowed a 100-yard rusher over the past two weeks. The last player to hit the mark against Buffalo was San Diego star and probable NFL MVP LaDainian Tomlinson. Henry, who is listed as questionable with an ankle injury, is no Tomlinson, but is on the brink of what would be the third 1,000-yard rushing season in his career. Young (462 yards, 5 TDs) can also run with the best of them, and showed that two weeks ago with a dazzling 39-yard TD run to beat Houston in overtime. He needs 38 rushing yards to become the first rookie QB in league history with 500 yards rushing. Backup running back and fellow rookie Lendale White (224 yards) has contributed on a sporadic basis, and will get the nod if Henry is down with his injury.
Tennessee should be able to run the ball against a Buffalo defense that ranks 27th against the run this season. Buffalo defensive tackles Kyle Williams (40 tackles), Tim Anderson (31 tackles) and Larry Tripplett (29 tackles, 2 1/2 sacks) all chipped in against the Dolphins, but have a tougher task ahead of them against Henry and Young. Behind the first wall of defense are talented linebackers, including leading tackler London Fletcher-Baker (131 tackles, 2 sacks, 3 INTs). Fletcher racked up a team-high 10 stops against the Dolphins, for his seventh game this season with double-digit tackles. Takeo Spikes (54 tackles, sack) and Keith Ellison (50 tackles, sack, INT) play alongside Fletcher, and must be prepared for Tennessee's offensive attack. Spikes, however, will have to see if he can shake an ankle problem in order to play.
BILLS OFFENSE VS. TITANS DEFENSE
Losman (2,548 yards, 17 TDs, 10 INTs) is on a hot streak, and comes off a week in which he posted a career-high 142.5 passer rating, his second straight week with a rating of 140-plus. Losman threw three touchdown passes - to Josh Reed, Lee Evans and Robert Royal - and posted no interceptions for a second straight week. In a Week 14 win over the New York Jets, Losman tossed a pair of TD passes with no picks. Losman will try to take shots at Tennessee's 25th- rated passing defense with leading wideout Evans (70 catches, 1,083 yards, 6 TDs), who has a touchdown catch in each of his last two games. Evans is enjoying the first 1,000-yard season of his young career, and will most likely be matched up with Pacman Jones on Sunday. Evans hauled in one of Losman's three TD passes last week, a 21-yard score in the fourth quarter. He is a major reason why Buffalo owns the eighth-best passing attack in the NFL. Reed (32 catches, 340 yards, 2 TDs) had his best game of the season with four catches for 50 yards and a touchdown. Royal has a TD reception in three straight games, which is tied with Charley Ferguson for the longest scoring streak for a Bills tight end.
The Titans are last statistically on defense, but nobody would have known that last Sunday against the favored Jaguars. In addition to the three defensive touchdowns, the defensive front pressured Jaguars QB David Garrard all afternoon by sacking him five times. DE Kyle Vanden Bosch (63 tackles, 5 1/2 sacks) registered 1 1/2 sacks on Sunday and finished with five tackles (4 solo) snapping a streak of five weeks without touching the opposing quarterback. Travis Laboy (30 tackles, 3 sacks) should get his chances to take down Losman this week. In the secondary, Jones (53 tackles, 4 INTs), Finnegan (59 tackles), and Hope will look to make more big plays for the league's 25th- ranked passing defense. Hope had 10 tackles last Sunday.
McGahee (872 yards, 5 TDs) has been bruised, battered, and beset by illness in recent weeks, but shook off adversity with another solid outing against the Dolphins. In the previous week's win over the New York Jets, McGahee battled through a stomach problem and needed a ham sandwich to replenish his body. He ran for 125 yards and a touchdown on 16 carries in that game. On Sunday versus Miami, McGahee recorded 79 yards on 28 carries, but had to sit for a bit after taking a big hit from Dolphins linebacker Zach Thomas. McGahee, who has missed time with broken ribs and also played through an ankle injury, came through in the end with 40 yards on 10 second-half carries against Miami's tough defense. Behind a green offensive line, McGahee is within striking distance of a third straight 1,000-yard rushing season. It won't be an easy task if McGahee doesn't get there this week, as Week 17 opponent Baltimore is currently No. 2 in the league against the run.
McGahee is likely to get his numbers on Sunday, but it won't happen without a fight. Tennessee is 30th against the run, despite the presence of mammoth tackles Albert Haynesworth (25 tackles, sack), Robaire Smith (42 tackles, 1/2 sack) and Randy Starks (35 tackles, 2 sacks). Haynesworth and Starks both had four stops against Jacksonville's triple-threat of Garrard, Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor, with their efforts coming as a necessity for a defense that was on the field for 82 plays (44 minutes, 22 seconds). The unit was a part of a goal-line stand that was predated by 15 Jacksonville plays, 81 yards and four first downs. Defensive leader and linebacker Keith Bulluck (127 tackles, INT) recorded 10 tackles and a sack, while linebackers David Thornton (97 tackles) and Stephen Tulloch (46 tackles, 1 INT) did their part as well. Thornton had nine tackles against the Jaguars, while Tulloch (46 tackles, INT) added 11 tackles.
OVERALL ANALYSIS
The Titans and Bills are in the same position this week, needing to continue their recent hot streaks in order to maintain their long odds of reaching the postseason. Young has looked like the best player on the field at times during Tennessee's five-game win streak, and there is reason to believe he will give a youthful Buffalo defense some major problems. On the other side of the ball, the Titans have shown a propensity for making big plays, and though he's played well of late, look for Losman to regress on Sunday and give Tennessee some costly early Christmas gifts.
Sportsbook Betting Lines Predicted Outcome: Titans 28, Bills 17
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“You play to win the game!”
Those are the words of notoriously intense head coach Herman Edwards. Unfortunately, from a bettors’ perspective, most coaches don’t feel that way about the NFL preseason. August is a time to evaluate young players, finalize the depth chart and pray your star players stay healthy.
The trick to making money during the exhibition schedule is identifying coaches – like Edwards – who can’t stand losing even when there's nothing on the line.
The New York Jets betting won 15 of 21 preseason games and went 14-7 against the spread (ATS) during Edwards’s five-year tenure with the club. In his first season as the Kansas City Chiefs field boss, the team improved from 0-4 to 2-2.
Identifying win-a-holics like Edwards is a good start if you plan betting the preseason – even though most say you shouldn’t ... but what the hell do they know anyway?
Here’s a brief rundown of two teams that have a habit of winning during the second-stringers’ season, and another club that has a good chance of exceeding this year.
Playing in the media hub of North America can be stressful but the press can’t write anything negative about the way Tom Coughlin’s boys play in the preseason. The Giants won and covered all four games last summer, improving their record to 7-1 both straight up (SU) and against the spread over the last two years.
Coughlin has shown he’s not afraid to give his starters more time in the second preseason game than most of his colleagues, no doubt one of the reasons his team has been so dominant.
Bettors can count on America’s team early on. The Cowboys are 14-6 both SU and ATS since 2002 in warm-up contests. Former coach Bill Parcells, the coach of the team the last four years, has an intimidating, in-your-face presence – surely a reason Dallas has had so much early success.
The Big Tuna won’t be strolling the sidelines with looks of disgust, but new coach Wade Phillips will be anxious to make a good first impression for owner Jerry Jones.
Dallas plays the Indianapolis Colts and the Denver Broncos before things get serious. They then face the Houston Texans in their third contest (the game starters see most game time) and finish off with the Minnesota Vikings.
Expect a Dallas team able to walk away with another 3-1 preseason record.
This team scored a league-worst 12 offensive touchdowns last season, so the rookies and veterans each have something to prove. There’s a bounty of first-unit jobs up for grabs and plenty of bodies competing for those slots.
First-time head coach Lane Kiffin will be eager to impress an owner who employs the philosophy, “Just win, baby!”
The 32-year-old Kiffin has to command respect from a locker room full of players older than him. All of these factors should lead to purpose in preseason.
Don’t forget: before playing like a team that belonged in NFL Europe, Oakland went 4-1 (both SU and ATS) in exhibition games.
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